CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-02-16T04:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-02-16T04:24Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44676/-1
CME Note: Large CME first seen to the E in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2026-02-16T04:24Z. This CME is also seen to the E in SOHO LASCO C3 and as a partial halo in STEREO A COR2 with the bulk to the E. The CME is also seen to the E in GOES CCOR-1, but the majority of its propagation is obscured by Earth-shine. There appears to be some northward deflection very early in the propagation of the CME in the SOHO LASCO C2 FOV. The source of this CME is associated with an occulted M2.4 flare from beyond the E limb (~S10) that peaked at 2026-02-16T04:35Z. The associated eruption and ejecta can be seen across SDO AIA wavelengths, but the flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131. No clear arrival signature seen in the solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-20T02:32Z
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
*** LASCO ***
Time of Launch: 2026/02/16 04:25Z
Plane of Sky 1: 08:00Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 18:00Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction
POS Difference: 10:00
POS Midpoint: 13:00Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:35

Numeric View/Impact Type: -2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~10.97
Travel Time: ~10.97 * 8:35 = 94:07

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2026-02-20T02:32Z

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2026/02/17 18:18Z
Lead Time: 56.18 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2026-02-17T18:21Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy